Chris Field amerikai kutató, az IPCC kormányközi testület tagja Február 14-én Chicagóban hozta nyilvánosságra legújabb kutatási eredményeit a klímaváltozás következményeiről.
Már korábban is napvilágot látott több olyan hipotézis, hogy a klímaváltozás nemcsak az emberi tevékenység miatt gyorsulhat fel, hanem ebben természetes folyamatok is segíthetik. Az is biztos, hogy a folyamatosan tapasztalható és mérhető hőmérsékletemelkedést természetes folyamatok is generálják, hiszen a Föld történetében több olyan időszak volt, mikor egyáltalán nem volt jég a sarkvidékeken. Ennek nagyon sok okozója lehet a föld légkörében felgyülemlő üvegházhatású gázoktól a bolygó forgási tengelyének vagy a Nap körül leírt pályájának megváltozásáig. Az emberi tevékenység, pontosabban az ipari forradalom óta folyamatosan növekvő szennyezőanyag kibocsátás bizonyítottan melegíti a földi légkör hőmérsékletét. Ebben az a legveszélyesebb, hogy így kibillenthetünk egy olyan egyensúlyt, mely nagyjából tízezer éve áll fenn a Földön, tehát nagyjából azóta, hogy az emberi civilizáció létezik. Ez egy nagyon kényes egyensúly.
Az egyre növekvő mértékű üvegházhatású gázok kibocsátásával, az erdők pusztításával olyan folyamatokat indíthatunk be, melyeket már semmilyen emberi kontroll nem tud irányítani.
Szinte közhely, hogy a trópusi esőerdőket a Föld tüdejének nevezzük. Ezeken a területeken a magas páratartalom miatt tudvalevőleg nagyon nehéz a tűzgyújtás, ezért az erdőtüzek is ritkák, kivéve az ember által alkalmazott felperzselést. Azzal azonban, hogy folyamatosan csökken a területük, a hőmérséklet pedig emelkedik, a páratartalom is csökken, így egyre inkább éghetőbbé válnak. Tehát ha kellően kiszáradnak óriási méretű erdőtüzekre számíthatunk, mely nem csak tovább növeli a szén-dioxid mennyiségét a légkörben, de elpusztulnak azok az erdők, melyek eddig óriási mennyiséget megkötöttek ebből a gázból.
Az óceánok is hatalmas CO2 megkötők. Kevéssé ismert, de a tengerek nagyon nagy mennyiségű légköri szén-dioxid megkötésére képesek. Kutatások bizonyítják, hogy a globális felmelegedés miatt a déli- óceánokon megváltozott a széljárás, melynek következtében a tenger kevesebb légköri szén-dioxid felvételére képes. Ezzel a folyamattal újabb nagy CO2 felvevő esik ki a rendszerből.
Nem új keletű felfedezés, hogy a hőmérséklet emelkedésével a tundra területeken olvadásnak induló talaj hatalmas mennyiségű szén-dioxidot és metánt (25-70 szerese üvegházhatása a CO2-nek) enged a légkörbe. Field szerint a rövidtávon várható legerősebb hatás a talajba fagyott növényi szervezetek bomlásakor keletkező szén-dioxid légkörbe jutása. Becslések szerint a fagyott talajban felhalmozódott CO2 mennyisége elérheti az 1000 milliárd tonnát. Összehasonlításul az ipari forradalom óta az emberi tevékenység által a légkörbe jutott CO2 mennyisége nagyjából 350 milliárd tonna. Tehát a permafrost (állandóan fagyott) talajok olvadása óriási és gyors lökést adhat az egyébként is emelkedő légköri hőmérsékletnek. Pontos számadatok sajnos még nem léteznek, de biztos, hogy ezen a folyamatok beindulásával, sokkal gyorsabb és nagyobb mértékű melegedésre számíthatunk, mint azokat korábban jósolták. Field szerint ahhoz, hogy ez ne következzen be radikális kibocsátás csökkentére van szükség azonnal, melynek a kutató szerint most Kína és India, rohamosan növekvő üvegházhatású gázkibocsátásával szab leginkább gátat. Természetesen ilyen érvekkel nem lehet a felelősséget a "fejlett" nyugati államokról, hiszen egyenlőre még ők a legnagyobb kibocsátók.
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